Models Show ‘Ton of Snow’ Possible for Missouri Next Week?
I tend to be conservative when it comes to actually sharing news of an incoming snowstorm. Since I was born and raised in Missouri, I insist that someone "show me" proof. In this case, there are multiple models showing the possibility of a major snow even in Missouri the second week of January.
I began to dig a little deeper (no snow shoveling pun intended) into the possibility of snow headed toward our part of Missouri when I came across a meteorologist share on YouTube with the horrifying title "A Ton of Snow is Coming".
Since my wife is the smart one in our relationship (and a meteorologist), I asked for her assistance and she confirmed there are two models which disagree on how much, but agree snow is indeed coming to Missouri.
First, here's the European model for January 10 through January 11, 2024. Please note that the European models tend to be a bit crazier when it comes to possible snow amounts. In this case, they're claiming a whopping 17.7 inches is possible in our part of Missouri. I cannot emphasize enough that this is NOT a forecast. I only share it to show you the extremes of what some of these models are showing.
Here's the more conventional GFS model which is more conservative, but still shows many many inches of snow possible for northeast Missouri. Once again, this is NOT a forecast.
UPDATE 1/1/24 (6:14pm) - NOAA now has our part of Missouri and Illinois in the "moderate" chance for heavy snow next week.
The National Weather Service has now chimed in and said what I've said (more or less) by talking about how many uncertainties there are with this storm and the models.
What does it all mean? I asked my wife for her official weather expertise opinion and she said the path of the low pressure system will determine who gets snow and how much. If it goes more to the north than expected, our part of northeast Missouri will see less than the models show. If the low pressure goes through southern Missouri specifically, the higher snow amounts (and high wind) are likely.
Here's yet another update as of January 3, 2024 at 3:30 pm as the National Weather Service in St. Louis is admitting that snow impacts are indeed very much possible for early next week.
The National Weather Service in central Illinois is also now warning of what could happen.
One final thought. As of this writing, we're a week and a half away from this system going through the Midwest. Don't take this as a forecast. I share this as a warning to watch and pay attention to forecasts later this week about what the NWS sees when the models are updated.
The National Weather Service advises people to plan and prepare and that is all I'm trying to accomplish with this. Be prepared and make plans IF this storm system gets fierce.
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