Model Shows Freezing Temps Arrive in Missouri Before Mid-October?

Please be wrong. That was my first thought when my wife the meteorologist pointed me to a computer model that seems to show freezing temperatures could arrive in Missouri before mid-October.

The website Pivotal Weather shows detailed weather information and that includes computer models like the much-used GFS. I asked my wife to explain to me in dumb man terms what this model was showing and she said words I can't even spell.

Here's the simplest way I can describe it. The blue line on this map shows the areas which will have freezing temperatures. This is the model for October 14 showing the freezing line covering nearly all of Missouri.

It becomes even more prevalent as those blue lines move even further south over Missouri even over half of Arkansas.

This final model is as far as the GFS will show as of this writing. If this is accurate, it translates into freezing temperatures for all of Missouri prior to mid-October.

My wife said something else that's important to pay attention to and that's the fact that she's not seeing ANY forecasts anywhere (yet) that are agreeing with what the GFS is showing.

I've looked at enough of these weather computer models to know that just one variable change can affect the entire outlook so don't look at this possibility at mid-October freezing as a forecast. As I have shared before, the typical first frost in Missouri is late October into early November so let's hope that proves true this year also.