It says here that the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 48 over the Seattle Seahawks.

My math teachers always insisted that we show our work. Here’s how I arrived at that conclusion…

Both teams are relatively injury free as post season begins. That’s huge.  Sure, both teams do have nicks and dings but that’s normal after 16 regular season games in 17 weeks.

Seattle has good depth. The defense is solid. So is the offense. The Seahawks also have home field advantage and the toughest venue in the NFC for visitors. The most likely team to bump them off is San Francisco.  Those are the two best NFC entries.

Now, about Kansas City.  This team won two games a year ago. It’s impossible to go from double digit losses to Super Bowl Champion. Really?  Remember the ’99 Rams?

The Chiefs are solid in all three phases of the game and reasonably healthy. That’s what you need to win from here on out.

The defense has been pretty solid for a few years now. They’re physical and aggressive. The Chiefs are also very good at creating turnovers and that is very often THE deciding factor in a lot of post season games.

And now, the other two parts of the Chiefs have caught up to the defense.

General Manager John Dorsey and Coach Andy Reid overhauled the offense last spring by addressing a long neglected offensive line and obtaining new quarterbacks. That offense has also started to click in the last few weeks.  Knile Davis has also emerged as a second, very dangerous running back in addition to Jamaal Charles.

Reid and assistant Dave Toub returned the Chief special teams to their usual high standard.  This unit generally sets the offense up in good field position. They are also pretty good at shutting down kick and punt returns.  Toub was the man behind those great Chicago Bear special teams over the last several years.

Elsewhere in the AFC…

The favorite according to the conventional wisdom*  is Denver.  However, the Broncos are without their most talented defender. Von Miller is out for the season. The secondary is iffy. On offense, they’re working with two backups at offensive tackle and that can mean a poor decision every now and then—even by Peyton Manning.

New England’s fortune rides on how accurate Tom Brady can be with an unremarkable collection of receivers.  That's a lot to ask--even of Brady.

Indy’s run defense is suspect and I can’t see Cincinnati stringing together enough solid, smart football to get to the Jersey swamps.

I’d keep a close eye on San Diego. They’re on a roll and leading a charmed life.

My Super Bowl Pick?  Kansas City Chiefs 27 Seattle 20. Why?   I’m a Chiefs fan. Pigs will fly before I pick against them.

*”conventional wisdom”—this is something that seems to make sense but is often wrong, sometimes  in spectacular fashion.

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