The good news is that the horrific thunderstorm pattern that caused immense tornado damage to many parts of Missouri and other parts of the Midwest is likely over for now. The potentially bad news is that parts of Missouri might still see explosive thunderstorm development the last week of May.

Please note that this is not a forecast. We're still too many days away from the last week of May to know exactly how the next weather pattern will develop. However, there is reason for concern based on a look at potential supercell development and that's especially true for parts of Missouri.

Max Velocity - Severe Weather Center on YouTube shared what is known as the Composite Supercell Composite Parameter. The simple explanation is that it reveals what models think could be problem areas for big supercell thunderstorm activity. This map shows the week starting May 22 through the Memorial Day weekend.

Max Velocity - Severe Weather Center via YouTube
Max Velocity - Severe Weather Center via YouTube

The southern half of Missouri is right in the middle of the red area where strong supercell development is expected. Once again, this is NOT a forecast, but just an early warning to be aware of the potential for severe weather especially if you're schedule or life the last week of May involves southern Missouri.

Max also mentions that the northern half of Missouri is also potentially an area of storm development, too. It's just that the models as of this writing show more volatility in the southern half of Missouri.

The point of this is to alert you to pay attention to official National Weather Service and National Storm Prediction Center alerts starting May 22. If the supercell models are correct, it could be a stormy week in Missouri - again.

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Gallery Credit: Canva

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