Missouri, Beware: A “Fake Spring” Is About to Fool You

I am a fan of warm weather which is why what's about to happen in Missouri has me conflicted. Yes, it's good news that warmer weather is almost certainly headed our way. The bad news is that it's really a fake Spring and winter will likely return with a vengeance.

Let's begin with the good news. Here's where temperatures in Missouri are expected to be toward the middle of the month. This is the temperature map from Pivotal Weather for February 12, 2026. It's entirely possible that most of Missouri will see 60 degree or warmer temps around that time.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center agrees that the next 6 to 14 days will see a major warmup for Missouri and much of the Midwest. Just look at all those warmer temperatures. I like it.

Even the Farmer's Almanac believes that planting season could start early for Missouri, so what's the problem? The issue is that we're just now starting February and there's still the rest of February and March to deal with before we officially get to real Spring. The National Weather Service in St. Louis has a long list of major winter storms that have clobbered Missouri in March. I remember one winter storm back in 2002 when much of Missouri was hit with several inches of snow and up to an inch of sleet in many areas.

Don't get me wrong. I look forward to some relief from the bitter cold with the warmer temperatures we're expected to see in mid-February in Missouri and I would love it if it would just stick around, but I've seen too many late winter months where a brief warmup was followed by brutal cold and snowstorms. I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't get too used to the incoming fake Spring if I were you.