Models Show Extreme Tornado Danger for Missouri in Late March

There is a big difference between a weather forecast for Missouri and what a computer model shows is possible. But, if the current models turn out to be accurate, there is an extreme danger for tornadoes in much of Missouri the last week of March 2024.

I've seen multiple meteorologists online talking about a trough ejection forecast for March 26 through March 30. It's a supercell composite of what models are showing is possible (key word) at the end of this month in Missouri. Reed Timmer shared this graphic on his Facebook page.

Reed is not alone in his assessment that the energy from this modeled system could be explosive.

Weather on the Go came up with a warning map that also shows dangerous storm development including much of Missouri for the last week of March.

Keep in mind that this scenario is what computer models are showing is possible, but not necessarily likely. NOAA talks about how computer models use "atmospheric motions that can be described by mathematical equations". The government forecasters also say "weather models are generally accurate out four days or so". The further out the model is from the actual day, the more unpredictable the result may be.

When I see just one forecaster saying that Missouri could get hit by severe weather and especially tornadoes a couple of weeks out, I make a mental note, but generally ignore it. However, in a case like this where many are in agreement, I pass along the warning myself to watch what could develop.

All that being said, please keep an eye on what forecasts from the National Weather Service end up saying as we get closer to the end of March. It could end up being a non-event, but it could also develop into a life-threatening situation for much of Missouri.